Roger Spitz’s 2020 decision-making paper looks prescient in 2026

A 2020 Journal of Futures Studies paper by Roger Spitz is being recast as an early warning on AI, human agency and strategic decision-making. Six years later, the article’s AAA Framework and “Metaruptions” concept are cited across military strategy, governance and management research.

Why it matters: - Roger Spitz’s 2020 paper is now being read as an early map of the AI-era fight over human judgment, automation and agency. - The article’s AAA Framework — Antifragile, Anticipatory, Agility — has moved from academic theory into citations across military strategy, cyber risk, management and governance. - The paper’s warning that decision-making could shift from a human C-Suite to an algorithmic A-Suite now tracks with debates about prescriptive AI and human involvement in high-stakes decisions.

What happened: - The Journal of Futures Studies published “The Future of Strategic Decision-Making” by Roger Spitz on July 26, 2020. - The paper formalized the AAA Framework in print for the first time and framed strategic decision-making as a three-step process: detect and collect intelligence, interpret information, then make and implement decisions. - In 2026, the paper is being cited across AI, military strategy and governance-related work as organizations reassess how much decision authority machines should hold. - Spitz also released related work in 2026 through Elon University’s Imagining the Digital Future Center, titled “Will superstupidity be as dangerous as superintelligence?”

The details: - Spitz’s paper argued that machines were moving up the decision value chain from optimization to augmentation and then prescription. - The paper warned that human decision-making could be sidelined by algorithms if people do not improve their ability to operate in nonlinear environments. - Spitz described the operating environment as “Metaruptions,” defined as complex, nonlinear, unpredictable, cascading and self-reinforcing disruptions. - Metaruptions was later named a Word of the Year for 2026 by Forbes contributor Dr. Zhexembayeva. - Spitz’s broader framework was later codified in “An Existential Framework for the Future of Decision-Making in Leadership” (2021), The Definitive Guide to Thriving on Disruption (2022-2023), Disrupt With Impact (2024) and “The AAA Framework: Responsible Leadership for Sustainable Futures” (2025). - The concept now appears in work by the International Training Centre of the UN’s International Labour Organization, the UK National Preparedness Commission, the CFA Institute and other professional bodies. - A representative citation in Military Strategy Magazine’s Winter 2026 issue has U.S. Army War College authors using Spitz’s ideas to argue for antifragile planning systems that improve under chaos. - Spanish-language cyber risk research in Latin America applies Spitz’s Complex Five metaphors to AI-automated cyber operations. - Management research and academic work on AI leadership also cite the paper’s warning that a C-Suite could give way to an A-Suite. - Spitz’s background includes two decades advising CEOs, boards and shareholders, plus more than 50 transactions worth $25 billion as Global Head of Technology M&A. - After moving to San Francisco in 2017, Spitz studied complexity science at the Santa Fe Institute, design thinking at Stanford’s d.school and futures thinking at Singularity University and the Institute for the Future.

Between the lines: - The paper’s reach suggests the strategic decision-making problem has shifted from a futures-studies niche to a cross-sector operational issue. - Its continued citation in security, cyber and management research shows the question is no longer just whether AI can assist decisions, but where human accountability still belongs. - Spitz’s use of Metaruptions and AAA also gives organizations a vocabulary for describing disruption that feels more systemic than the older “VUCA” language. - The 2026 attention reflects a broader market for frameworks that help leaders respond to AI not only as a productivity tool, but as a force that can reshape judgment itself.

What’s next: - Spitz says his Visionary Trilogy keynote platform will carry the analysis into 2026-2027 events, with demand already extending into 2027. - His first-half 2026 engagements included Meta’s Conversations 2026 in London, RSA Conference in San Francisco and MIT Technology Review in São Paulo. - The article’s original call to “adopt AAA” is now being positioned as a practical test for whether organizations can retain more agency over their futures as AI systems advance. - Readers can access the original paper and Roger Spitz’s speaking information.