Analysts See Limited Effect on Texas Electricity Rates by Strait of Hormuz Closure
U.S. Natural Gas Prices During Recent Conflicts
Record U.S. gas output shields Texas from the Hormuz crisis, but NOAA forecasts above-normal heat through July. Your thermostat is the real risk.
HOUSTON, TX, UNITED STATES, April 3, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- Data Shows Summer Heat Usually Powers Texas Electric Price Hikes More Than Conflicts OverseasDespite Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cutting off roughly 12 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from global markets, analysts at TexasElectricityRatings.com say customers are unlikely to see crisis-driven rate spikes this summer. Understanding why just requires a look back at the last time a major foreign energy crisis tested U.S. prices.
Check out the full "Iranian Conflict Effect On Texas Energy Rates" study here: https://www.texaselectricityratings.com/resources/iranian-conflict-effect-on-texas-energy-rates-this-summer
That test came in February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and NATO allies swiftly cut off Russian gas imports. European benchmark prices exploded, jumping from around $25 per MMBtu to more than $117 per MMBtu within weeks. Yet U.S. natural gas prices barely flinched. America's robust domestic production, with Texas alone supplying roughly a quarter of the national total, effectively insulates consumers from foreign supply shocks.
What did shake U.S. prices that year was weather. A brutal winter drained natural gas storage to 17% below the five-year average by mid-March. Then summer arrived hard. Dallas electricity rates jumped as the mercury hit 100°F or above on 47 days. Generators burned natural gas at a record 42.6 billion cubic feet per day to keep air conditioners running. By June, average 12-month residential rates in Texas had climbed from 15.59 cents per kWh to 20.81 cents per kWh. Electricity companies in Houston charged the highest average price per kWh at 25.82 cents.
Current market conditions paint a far calmer picture. U.S. natural gas prices are running two to three times lower than 2022 levels, with NYMEX prices holding steady near $3.00/MMBtu for most of 2026. Domestic production has surged to a record 121 billion cubic feet per day, roughly 20% above 2022 output. Natural gas storage sits close to the five-year average, a level that historically keeps commodity markets from panicking. Meanwhile, ERCOT is drawing on significantly more solar, wind, and utility-scale battery storage than in previous years, giving grid operators more tools to hold prices down.
As a result, today's average 12-month residential plan in Texas runs about 15.87 cents per kWh. That's close to where March 2022 rates started before summer heat sent rates soaring.
However, the weather remains the key risk for 2026. NOAA currently forecasts above-normal temperatures spreading across Texas through June and July. The number of 100°F days in Texas has been climbing steadily since the mid-1990s. And each day drives up cooling demand and ultimately your electric bills.
For these reasons, TexasElectricityRatings.com analysts warn Texans that Middle East headlines are not driving their electric bills this summer. Their thermostats are.
TexasElectricityRatings.com is a website operated by Electricity Ratings, LLC.
Electricity Ratings, LLC operates a network of energy shopping websites serving 17 states and 56 utilities, providing our energy comparison and ratings service to over 80 million customers. We provide our customers with the power to choose the best providers through our consumer reviews platform which provides a reliable, unbiased source of valuable consumer insight. And we back that up by offering in-depth energy company service analysis, personalized recommendations, and practical advice. Our mission is to help consumers harness the power of information to find, compare, and buy electricity and energy services from the best providers.
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Vernon Trollinger
TexasElectricityRatings.com
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